Archive for March, 2011

Tortoise Wins the race… Time to diversify?

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14 years
by

I am starting to think it may be time to diversify a little. Oil and minerals are great when things are going well but it can be tough to make up ground when things are not moving as planned. I was discussing this with some friends today after looking over a virtual portfolio I left running from 2009. Some of my original choices have flourished. There is definitely something to be said for just choosing quality companies based on good solid fundamentals. – Gains are slow and steady but more consistent… Bit like the Hare and the Tortoise!

I don’t plan to sell up and buy all safe stocks quite yet but I may be looking into making some changes to the way I invest over the next few months…

The value of the portfolio has remained steady this week with some gains and some losses;

Really, very little change from last weeks update.

BMR looks very promising and is showing no signs of slowing.

No update yet from XEL. If the update is not this month I am expecting a drop back which will provide an excellent buying opportunity. If the CPR is out we could see a substantial rise on the day…

MTA remain unchanged this week, even with all the recent ramping… Still looking very strong.

I was a little surprised with the extent of the GKP pull back. I didn’t expect it to fall back this far and if I had more to invest, this would be a good place to put my money.

I am not selling Avanti just yet…

Bowleven, I like. As for the rest of the portfolio, any of the others could go over the next few weeks to raise funds for new shares or to top up my other investments.

Other than the portfolio, there are still plenty of opportunities arising from the recent volatility in Japan and the Middle East. With the portfolio being fully invested I made use of the spread betting account. Not my usual thing but I have even held a few short positions this week! I cannot see the Japan 225 holding at these levels. I expect to see another drop back over the next couple of weeks.

I use IGindex for my spread betting account. If you want an account – sign up using this link, I get a small commission for signing you up so if use the link to sign up and actually use the account, let me know and I will send you a free book on spread betting.

www.igindex.co.uk/?QPID=46523987&QPPID=1

Next update will be on a Wednesday! As always, very keen to hear from you – email websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk or use the comments system.

 

Signs of life?

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14 years
by

 

Encouraging signs of recovery this week. Time to come out from behind the sofa look at the portfolio again?

What a recovery for Gulf Keystone following the excellent news about the Shaikan-2 well. I think that SP would be Mid 200’s if it wasn’t for the current situation in the middle East…

 

Gulf Keystone is pleased to announce the results of the previously reported well test at the Shaikan-2 Appraisal Well drilled approximately nine km to the south-east of the Shaikan-1 discovery well.

Shaikan-2 has achieved short term, indicated rates of 10,144 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and a stabilised flow rate of 8,064 bopd of 26 degree API oil and 2.44 mmscf/d of gas (Gas Oil Ratio of 302 scf/bbl) on a 2″ choke at a 250 psi flowing wellhead pressure. Given the Shaikan-2 well test conditions, as well as the successful well stimulation’s at Shaikan-1 & 3, the Company anticipates that sustained rates in excess of 10,000 bopd could also potentially be achievable at Shaikan-2.

The Shaikan-2 flow rates are consistent with the Shaikan-1 & 3 rates but with higher quality oil and more associated gas, both of which can lead to an enhanced recovery rate. The oil gravity of 26 degrees API is significantly better (lighter) than Shaikan-1 & 3, both of which are currently producing 18 degree API oil from the upper sections of the Jurassic at the Company’s Extended Well Test facility.

The Shaikan-2 well test was conducted in a 44 meter interval (1792m to 1836m) in the upper section of the Jurassic age formation. Following this test, normal drilling operations will  recommence and the Company anticipates that further Shaikan-2 drilling will follow the Shaikan-1 geological sequence, i.e. through multiple, potential Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs before reaching TD at the bottom of the Triassic or into the top of the Permian, depending on well results.

The Company has a 75 percent working interest in the Shaikan block and is partnered with the MOL subsidiary, Kalegran Ltd., and Texas Keystone Inc. which have the remaining 20 and 5 percent working interests respectively.

 

Xcite have also recovered very well this week. –  This was very predictable! I really should have bought some more but everything in the portfolio looks artificially low right now and I simply couldn’t choose what to get out of. – My strategy is now to make use of any delays in news. There is a strong possibility that news may not come out this month as suggested by the BOD. Any delays should give some good buy in opportunities.

Encore are also showing signs of a come back. Results from the sidetrack could easily be out before the end of March and news about Cladham is due on the 9th April. So some change in SP will inevitably be seen over the next few weeks. Could be a good buying opportunity?

Berkeley Mineral – BMR have shown resilience over the last few weeks bucking the downward trend in the sector. Some really big buys in today suggesting some news may be on the way.

Bowleven are also looking very strong this week. SP has recovered from 320p to 370p. On March 18th it was announced that drilling had commenced on the Sapele-2 well which is an appraisal well for Sapele-1. I am holding…

Both Ascent and Avanti continue to disappoint. Avanti directors bought in a couple of weeks ago at 500p… I do not understand these drops. It seems the market does not have any confidence…?
Ithaca Energy are holding their own this week despite a drop of 20% in the production forecast for Q1. Full year forecasts remain unchanged. This provided some nice buy opportunities this week

Matra are up a little today. Despite being fairly volatile on a daily basis the overall trend is upwards. Matra still look comparably cheap considering their potential. I am looking forward to the next update.
It’s a bit of a relief to be able to publish a positive post. – Let’s hope the weeks rise continues! – Good luck all.

I use IGindex for my spreadbetting account. If you want an account – sign up using this link, I get a small commission for signing you up so if use the link to sign, let me know and I will send you a free book on spreadbetting.

www.igindex.co.uk/?QPID=46523987&QPPID=1

Next update will be on a Wednesday! As always, very keen to hear from you – email websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk or use the comments system.

 

Hiding behind the sofa…

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14 years
by

As troglotrader pointed out in his comment on my last post – I have been hiding behind the sofa this week. It seems I am not alone – You would not believe how many other investors were behind there.

No sales this week but the portfolio seems to have finally stabilised a little.

The Japan 225 is trading about 20% down and seems to be ranging between 8500 and 9000. I have had a few short positions on the FTSE and the 225 over the last few days. This has compensated for some but not all of the losses over the portfolio. Lessons learned for the next natural disaster. If somebody out there knows when and where it’s likely to happen can they please let me know in advance. – Thanks…

I am planning on holding on to most of my shares for now, although I would quite like to increase my XEL holding before the report due at the end of this month… I can’t help but think it will be a good short term move so a sale or two will be required.

I realise that this is probably not the best time to ask but Cornwall based charity “Shelterbox” are heading off to the worst affected areas in Japan this week to provide help to those who have been made homeless by this weeks events. If you were thinking you would like to help then a donations will be well spent.

http://www.shelterbox.org/donate.php

All we can hope for now is that things cool off now in Japan without further complications. Good luck to all.

 

Doug

 

Holiday

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14 years
by

I apologise for the late update this week, I have been on holiday. Yesterday I was having such a nice time doing the garden in the sunshine that I decided that the website could wait a day…

Early in the week It had looked like the spring weather was having a positive effect on the markets but on checking the portfolio this morning it looks like a particularly bad day! EO, XEL, IAE and XEL all substantially down… I really don’t see there being many more chances to buy into XEL and GKP at these levels. I may have to do some more shuffling.

No buys or sells to report as I have been away from PC and concentrating on the gardening. – Thanks for the emails, – it’s V nice to know that somebody is keeping an eye on my portfolio while I am gardening! I could get lazy…

It actually looks like one of those weeks that is better spent away from the screen anyway. – It’s easy to make bad decisions when things are bouncing around like they have been lately. I am quite comfortable with why I bought everything in the portfolio right now so I am probably going back outside to plant out my garlic…

I finally got the IGindex partnership setup. Very pleased as I have used at least five different providers and IG seem to have very reasonable spread and allow trading of nearly everything, including AIM. I think they are the best all round option – So If you want a spreadbet account – sign up using this link! I get a small commission for signing you up so if use the link and sign up, let me know and I will send you a book, a bottle or something nice!

www.igindex.co.uk/?QPID=46523987&QPPID=1

Next update will be on a Wednesday! As always, very keen to hear from you – email websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk or use the comments system.

GLA

 

Doug

 

 

Big moves, Xcite, HSBC and BEM

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14 years
by

This morning saw XEL, Xcite Energy drop back to just above 300p. This seems to be the results of yesterdays RNS. I have been in XEL to various degrees all the way up from about 80p and after selling at 363p I been looking for a re-entry point for some time. This drop was enough for me to be tempted back. I sold my Vitec group shares for a 15% profit and put all funds back into XEL at 310p. I hope to see a steady rise throughout the month as we get closer to the reserves report that is due at the end of THIS month!

This weeks other big move was to sell BEM, Beowulf. I sold today at 74p. I know this will be controversial because they have a very busy schedule ahead of them over the coming months. I sold today after weighing up risks. I bought only a small holding of £750 and at 153% profit in 9 weeks I didn’t want to risk watching dwindling profits in the wait for news. – BEM is a great company that I will probably look at again if the opportunity presents itself.

My other buy this week was HSBC. HSBC’s share price dropped back about 5% over the last couple of days following announcement of profits that obviously fell a little short of market expectation. I think this is looking over sold. Buys are outnumbering sells and I am expecting this to bounce back over the next few weeks. Ex dividend on 16th March.

Multiple director buys coming in for Avanti – not surprised as this price. It’s nice to see some confidence from the BOD. When will the market realise that Avanti are going to rocket…?

Berkeley Mineral and ascent resource have both lost a little ground since last week. Holding for now as fundamentals have not changed.

Still plenty of opportunities around at the minute, GKP is creeping back having dropped back as low as 135p over the last week. What a fantastic opportunity… I would have liked to have bought more but funds were needed for XEL.

Good luck all. – As usual, keen to hear any of your thoughts or tips! Email me at websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk or use the comments system to get in touch.

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