Archive for January, 2011

Bad week anyone? – Wednesday update.

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14 years
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Has anyone else had a particularly bad week?

The portfolio is down 5% over the last week. I suppose that it’s almost inevitable to see some kind of retrace after the ramp up to the new year… Will  I dare to sell all my shares in the first week of February next year? – Probably not.

Thanks to the person who pointed out my mistake of buying Ortac yesterday… They could have been had for 1.8p today! I still think they are a good buy and for now I am holding tight!

It’s Wednesday so a quick run over the changes to the portfolio. Not a huge amount this week;

Firstly, Selling XEL to fund more Atlantic coal shares at 1.1p looks to have been a good decision. It allowed me to average down from my original buy price and I am now showing a small profit.

The remainder of the XEL cash was put into GKP. This was not an easy decision but I already have a significant holding of XEL elsewhere at current prices Gulf Keystone seems to be good value in terms of risk/reward…

Recent buy Atlantic coal (ATC.L) is hovering around the 1.2p mark. Some big buys have come in this week, with BlackRock increasing their holdings to over 9%. News expected soon about the delivery of the Tonka trucks.

It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks. A number of companies with reports and news due early February so we can expect some disruption! I am very aware that commodity prices cannot rise like they have over the last few months forever so I am not expecting gains quite like over the last 6 months! That said – a number of large investment banking firms are predicting substantial growth in commodities this year so with the right shares we could have another good year!

Good luck all,

Keep me updated, websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk – or use the comments system!

Doug

Ortac Resources ? OTC.l

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14 years
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Ortac resources SP have been on my watch list for some time. Today they released a very positive resource upgrade that initially triggered a price spike up to 3.25p The inevitable sell happened and the price is currently 2.3p!I cannot help but feel that this will recover over the next few weeks.

I am in.

Why BowLeven? (BLVN.L)

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14 years
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I was doing my usual rounds this morning and came across this excellent post by “Fundfemale” on the “iii” bulletin boards. She kindly gave me permission to post it. It really summarises nicely why I have confidence in BLVN. – Have a read…

“Straight off the blocks with recognition and accolades, Telegraph recommendation for 2011, Barclays Capital to overweight, broker upgrades, on the list of Nomura most likely companies to be taken over…

Current market cap 713.57m GBP c 220mUS/137GBP cash = approx enterprise value so an enterprise value of just 576.57mGBP.

NB.We need to be careful, ladies and gentlemen(!), let us support our share price – we would not want someone buying them ALL up at that price, would we??!

So why is our share price so neurotic? Not out of touch with reality, but is excessively anxious and tense for sure…

Fox Davies articulated a guess re. our last rns: “This is a preliminary announcement and when the evaluation work has been completed down to the current TD, the Company intends to deepen the well to test additional objectives that have been identified and to ascertain the presence of potentially deeper hydrocarbon reservoirs, IN PARTICULAR OIL.

Bowleven has provided a revised resources estimate for the Lower Omnicron, with a mean estimate up from 190mmbbl to 217mmbbl but has not provided any resources estimate for the new discoveries in light of the evaluation work that remains to be done.

The stock price reaction this morning accounts for the fact that the portion of the Epsilon complex that has been penetrated has confirmed gas/condensate rather than oil and the uncertainty regarding the potential size of the discovery. We believe that (i) even in that case a higher share price can be justified and (ii) the Company is well funded to pursue similar exploration targets in the permit”.

Recommendation BUY – price target 450p – but a higher share price target can be justified one the potential of the cretaceous discovery is clearer.
Unrisked potential previously quoted by FD c. 1800p.

The Etinde story so far:

A number of discoveries made in MLHP-7, first of all IE by Total in 1981 followed by a number of successful wells by Bowleven subsequently.

String of exploration successes on the IE-1, ID-1 and IF-1 wells. A few years ago, BLVN shares reached above 400p just before the 2008 financial meltdown and performed in-line with the AIM Oil&Gas index.

IE-3 2010:
Measured flow rates per interval ranged from 845 to 11,778 boepd with a cumulative maximum rate of 14,576 bpd of liquids and in excess of 50 mmscfd of gas (total 22,909 boepd). Strong development/appraisal partner in Vitol.

Sapele-1 (MLHP-5):

Deep Omicron Bowleven’s (as operator) in-place volumetrics on a P90 to P10 range have been revised upwards to 65 to 430 mmbbls (updated mean 217 mmbbls). These numbers are subject to ongoing revision following further evaluation and additional appraisal drilling. Due to the stratigraphic nature of the Omicron discoveries, further appraisal will be required and is being planned.

Cross-cut event: Gross hydrocarbon interval of approximately 18 metres provisional net pay is estimated to be approximately 4 metres.

Epsilon Complex: Discovery. The well has intersected a log evaluated gross hydrocarbon interval of approximately 9 metres in moderate to good quality reservoir sands. The Cretaceous net pay encountered TO DATE is estimated to be approximately 4 metres.

We are in the process of drilling into unknown cretaceous Doula Basin potential right now. News of “the new” Sapele-1 TD should be in a few days/weeks.

Quote from last RNS:
“A principal objective of the Sapele-1 well was to prove the concept of the Cretaceous play offshore Douala Basin. The well has now confirmed the presence of reservoir a hydrocarbons in the Cretaceous, offshore Douala Basin, and as a result extends the Cretaceous play fairway significantly offshore”.

I have no doubt that the Etinde Permit IS ALREADY (and will become more of) a very DESIRABLE piece of Hydro-carbon real estate.

As exciting as all this waiting for more news on Sapele-1 is; EQUALLY EXCITING is the forward planning of exploration and appraisal. With 220mUS to spend and balancing prudent appraisal with outrageous wildcatting – we could afford and have time for maybe, 4 or 5 wells on in 2010. Who knows where that will take us.

Cheer up Bowleven, be confident.

Maybe Bowleven just needs a bit of retail therapy, a nice new of pair of rigs maybe ??

Very happily invested here, FF”


Please remember that although I will do my best, I cannot guarantee that any info given on this site is accurate and my opinions should not be taken as advice.

Next weekly update will be on Wednesday – Good luck all. As usual, keen to hear your thoughts – Use the comments system or email me at websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk

DT.

Atlantic Coal and more!

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14 years
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Only one buy this week and its ATC – Atlantic coal.

I was expecting an event free week with very little on the calendar but it wasn’t to be…

My new buy Atlantic coal rocketed up from 1.3 to 2p during the week and at one point I was in £750 profit! I really should implement a new rule that forces me to sell when a share shows 50% profit in under a week… This was the first victim of the great sell off. The company director Adam Wilson sold a chunk of his holdings for half a million quid… Can’t blame him really. Unfortunately this had a rather significant effect on share price. A am not phased and will continue to hold.

“The Company’s strategy is to create a significant mid tier coal company, through the expansion of activities at the Stockton anthracite mine, identifying additional sites in Pennsylvania and building its production and resource profile, by primarily acquiring defined assets in stable and recognised high quality coal regions.”

Coal is in serious demand and with ambitious plans for this year I hope to see ATC fly.

The rest of the portfolio has been holding it’s ground over the last week. An XEL Sale RNS had little impact on the SP for a change. There is no science to the reaction to a director or large sale; I have real difficulty determining how much impact it will have. I sold 30% of my XEL shares this morning on the news that Ignis were selling off some of their holdings. The anticipated drop never materialised… I may buy these back if an opportunity arises or I may just increase my holdings in Matra or Beowulf.

Outside of the portfolio things are progressing nicely. Recent buy Porta Communications PTCM dropped back slightly this week so I used the opportunity to buy another half a million shares. I now hold just under a million! I intend to hold tight to these over the next two years as the new CEO, David Wright puts his ambitious plans into action. Last weeks buys CAZA and KEFI are showing 16 and 33% gains.

For the first time this week I am using Level 2 data to try and time my trades and get some better entry points. I have not yet determined how useful it really is compared with just watching the spread. I would be very interested to hear your thoughts and on any tips you may have on how to get the most out of it.

I am also planning to make some changes to the site over the coming week – Thanks to all those who have emailed me (websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk). I am planning to add an emails section to the site where (with your permission) I will post your emails (not your email address) and my reply. I get some great tips by email and I don’t mind sharing. I am also planning on re-introducing the live portfolio now the code has been repaired.

Happy trading,

Happy new year! 100% in 6 months!

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14 years
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Firstly , I would like to wish everyone – Happy new Year!

As of today the portfolio value is £20300. That’s over 100% gain in six months! Suffice to say I am pleased. The last few months I have been moving more and more into the commodities markets and seeing as it has been so lucrative, I can see this trend continuing.

I have only made two changes since the last post for the website portfolio. I had a large proportion of my shares in Xcite and with so many potential new shares on the radar I wanted to free up some funds. I want to maintain this portfolio with about 10-12 shares. This way I should be able to keep on top of what’s going on.

I am quite happy with the current selection of shares and all have a potential for huge gains in 2011.

ALO – Alecto Energy, Not much in the way of news since the the Mauritania licences were obtained. This share has dropped back a little since then and is looking like a really good buy right now. – Currently holding, RNS is way overdue.

AVN – Avanti, Still convinced this is a bargain. Sometimes when something looks too cheap, it really is. I would buy more but already holding 2.5k.

BEM – Beowulf Mining, Finally moved into profit. Up 25% for the new year. BEO release an excellent resource update in December and they have an exciting year ahead. I am convinced that on further resource updates and plans this SP has a long way to go yet! Target 70p stop 25p

BMR – Berkeley mineral, Still waiting on confirmation of the Kawbe deal going through. – Delays have caused a small retrace but news now scheduled for any time in Q1. If news is good there will be some big gains overnight…

EDL – Edenville Energy, What a performer! – Currently 175% profit in about a month. New out today so on writing this I am out. “Sell on news” could be the way to go here as there could be a while before the next update… View to buy back in a little cheaper. Hopefully there will be a few opportunities over the coming months.

EO. Encore oil, Up 5% on buy price. Excellent results from the Valdero Well. This is good news for Encores future. On to the next one already (Burgman). More exciting developments due over the next few weeks.

GKP. Gulf Keystone Petroleum, No movement here since my last post but continue to hold because this company has so much potential. A few legal wranglings have held them back recently but the BOD are confident these will be resolved without issue. Also there is talk of moving to the FTSE 250. This will only drive the SP up further.

MTA. Matra Petroleum, What a great buy. Only bought three weeks ago and showing a 50% gain. A production licence for the Sokolovskoe field has been granted for the next 20 years. – Just waiting on news from Well’s 12 and 13. These are expected soon and if news is good I would not be surprised if we saw another 50%.

VOG. Victoria oil and gas, Waiting on the appropriate licenses to be awarded. The BOD are confident that this will happen in the near future and are already signing up gas customers.

VTC. Vitec Group PLC, Vitec have enjoyed a good year and things seem to be progressing well. Based on last year we can expect an update soon.

XEL. Xcite Energy, You may have read in my last post that I sold off all of my Xcite holdings following the director sales over XMAS. I bought back part of my holdings for a few pennies discount a few days later. Now showing another £200 profit from Xcite.

New Purchases

IAE. Ithaca Energy, Ithaca are a Cash rich north sea oil and gas explorer and producer. They are busy acquiring acreage and currently working on a number of projects to increase production levels, – including;

– Sustained incremental injection of water into the Beatrice reservoirs
– Completion of the Beatrice Alpha well work over campaign including the
– Installation of downhole pumps in two Alpha production wells
– Intervention to restore pumped production from Bravo well, B1

The BOD anticipate an increase in  average production figures from 4400 to between 5500-6000 boepd for 2011. This along with every increasing prospects and assets should provide room fro significant rises in SP this year. Target 300p Stop 130p.

With the Ithaca buy I didn’t have enough ready cash to buy back Edenville today so I had to buy it outside of the portfolio. But i have bought back in at 2p

I have bought a few other shares recently outside of the website portfolio. All traded in the ISA or the spread bet account.

Firstly – Bought back this mornings sale of EDL. i was begining to question my motives for selling and the opportunity to buy back in at 2p was too much!

Others bought over the new year include, CAZA,  KEFI, PGD, CGH, not forgetting PTCM my potential goldmine – see my last post. All have great prospects for 2011 but all are high risk so do careful research.

Once again – Happy new year all and good luck in 2011

As usual, keen to hear your thoughts – Use the comments system or email me at websitemail AT dailytrading.co.uk

Doug

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